Amir Mizroch
Fifteen years from now America is still globally preeminent, yet its relative power is in decline. The US faces multiple threats from state and non-state actors, some of which have superseded their nation states and could be in possession of weapons of mass destruction.
Mega-cities forge their own policies and partnerships.
Complex threats transcend geographic borders and organizational boundaries, and small local skirmishes quickly escalate into worldwide shooting wars. Asia and the Middle East are awash with WMD; space, the Arctic and cyberspace become increasingly militarized. Governments around the world take a zero-sum attitude to international affairs and retreat from free trade agreements, while simmering competition between nations results in a growing wave of nationalism, reviving historic tensions.
This is the bleak picture painted by the US Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review (QICR) 2009, a scenario-based strategic planning activity that looks out to the year 2025 and considers alternative futures or “scenarios,” missions the intelligence community might be called on to perform, and the operating principles and capabilities required to fulfill those missions.
The insights gleaned are intended to help shape the next US National Intelligence Strategy and other planning and capability guidance documents. The QICR scenarios are currently being reviewed by a panel of outside experts at a conference organized by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in Washington.
The QICR document, reported on by Wired.com, details the geostrategic scenarios that inform the US intelligence community analyses. These scenarios draw heavily on the National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2025 study issued in November 2008.
The document is signed by David R. Shedd, deputy director of national intelligence for policy, plans and requirements, and is dated January 2009.
The report is divided under four headings: “Politics is not always local,” “World Without the West,” “Bric’s Bust Up” and “October Surprise.”
Under “Politics is not always local” the report looks at how identity-based groups supplant the authority of nation-states, competing with one another for influence in a chaotic politicalenvironment. By 2025 a subtle but unmistakable power shift has enabled identity-centric groups to gradually supplant the authority of traditional nation-states. National leaders frequently find their authority challenged in a variety of indirect ways: mega-cities forge their own policies and partnerships, a multitude of social and political movements lobby for change, and ideologically motivated groups cause violent disruptions.
The military capabilities of transnational ethnic, religious, and other identity groups increase dramatically. As a result, many groups operate their own private security forces. As central governments face demands for independence from subregions, particularly those rich in resources, some have no choice but to give in, leading to a decline in traditional state authority.
Under the heading “World Without the West” the report looks at how a China/Russia/India/Iran-centered bloc challenges US supremacy and sets the pace for innovation in key technologies.
In 2025, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization expands to include Russia, China, India and Iran, creating a fragile new coalition. Antagonism toward Western protectionism and complementary interests drives this coalition. Although the US and its European allies remain an important counterweight, the world focuses on the dynamic of this new coalition, hence a “World Without the West.”
Framing their cooperation as a new counterbalance to “Washington Consensus” economics and American military preeminence, these countries leverage their vast energy reserves, huge populations and high level of technological development to challenge US economic, military, and technological supremacy.
Declining US influence leads to a reassessment and realignment of today’s alliances, especially as traditional non-Western partners, such as Japan, reconsider their strategic priorities, given the rise of the Sino-Russian coalition.
Both sides look to leverage innovations in science and technology to establish control over nontraditional battlegrounds. This effort leads space, the Arctic, and cyberspace to become increasingly militarized and to emerge as critical venues for competition and conflict.
As the world becomes significantly polarized, health care becomes an important front for global competition. Sino-Russian coalition powers gain an edge in fields such as biotechnology, where less constrained ethical models and weaker regulation foster rapid and innovative research and development.
Under the heading “Bric’s Bust Up” the report takes a look at scenarios where states jockey for resources and adopt mercantilist trade policies in a precarious balance of power.
In 2025, a series of energy and resource shortages, particularly acute in Asia, disrupt what had promised to be a steady period of growth led by the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China).
Governments around the world take a zero-sum attitude to international affairs and retreat from free trade agreements, adopting mercantilist economic policies defined by assertive protectionism. Intense energy competition and transient shifting alliances lead to a rise in local skirmishes and an escalating threat of interstate war.
This lack of international cohesion allows nuclear weapons to proliferate in Asia and the Middle East, leading to a precarious balance of mutually deterrent powers that in some ways resembles a 21st-century replay of the years before 1914.
As a consequence of this retrenchment, international and regional organizations decline in scale and authority. The European Union, which has bucked centrifugal political forces and coalesced as a singular identity, marginalizes the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Despite this global retrenchment, the US maintains certain key alliances to protect global sea lanes and to ensure the security of its energy supply. Predictable military doctrines no longer hold as old alliances fracture and weapons of mass destruction proliferate. The global balance of power regularly changes as nations jockey for access to resources.